Gold Steadies After Split Fed Hold Keeps a December Hike in Play
Gold held steady on Wednesday after a divided Federal Reserve left rates unchanged but declined to rule out further tightening. That puts Thursday’s inflation data at the center of the outlook.
Gold: A Hold With Hawkish Dissents
The Fed kept its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4% on Wednesday in a 10-2 vote. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented in favor of an immediate quarter-point hike, so two of twelve voters already wanted to move. The statement said inflation remains elevated and that the Fed aims for a timely return to its 2% target.
Chair Kevin Warsh said he does not believe in forward guidance, meaning advance hints about future rate moves, outside a crisis, and he left December open without committing either way. Gold barely moved on the news: spot gold ended late New York trading near $4,056.80, almost unchanged on the day, because the market already expected a December hike and nothing Warsh said changed that. He also said the Fed will keep eight meetings a year but turn one of them into a strategy session with no rate vote starting next fall, rising to two in 2028.
Pressures Remain
Gold has fallen about 2.5% in October and is on track for a second straight monthly decline. Last week’s AI-driven stock rout forced some investors to sell gold to cover losses elsewhere, and bullion remains exposed to further equity selloffs. Analysts in a Reuters survey cut their 2026 gold forecast for a second straight quarter, citing high Treasury yields and a strong dollar. Higher yields hurt gold because it pays no interest.
The next test arrives Thursday with September PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred gauge, and the first estimate of third-quarter GDP.
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See all Gold forecastsSilver: No Matching Rebound
Silver lagged gold after the decision and slid more than 1% in late New York trading, to about $53.72. Because more than half of silver demand comes from industry, it is more sensitive than gold to tighter policy and slower growth.
Gold Technical Analysis: XAU/USD Rejected at $4,084 as $4,024 Support Comes Into Focus
Gold is trading near $4,040 on the 4-hour chart, down about 0.7% today. Prices rebounded from below $4,000 earlier this week but were turned back at $4,084, where a falling trendline, a line connecting lower highs, has capped rallies since mid-October.
Support, where buyers tend to step in, is $4,024, then $3,986. Resistance, where sellers tend to step in, is $4,084, then $4,146.
RSI, which measures the strength of recent buying and selling, has slipped to about 48, which is neutral. I keep a slight bearish lean while gold stays below $4,084. A close above it would open $4,146, while a drop below $4,024 would point to $3,986.
Silver Technical Analysis: XAG/USD Slips Toward $52.69 Inside Falling Channel
Silver is trading near $53.31 on the 4-hour chart, down about 1.2% today, still inside a falling channel, two parallel lines that have guided prices lower since September. Silver was turned back near $54.68 again, where the faster moving average, a line showing the recent average price, also sits.
The first support is $52.69, then $51.30. On the upside, $54.68 is the first resistance, followed by $56.42.
RSI is near 38 and below its signal line, a slower average of RSI, so sellers keep the edge. In my view, silver stays bearish below $54.68. A close below $52.69 would open $51.30.