Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Oil Rebounds From Two-Month Low, Can WTI Hold $83.99?

Oil Rebounds From Two-Month Low as Hormuz Attacks Persist

Crude rose on Wednesday from the previous session’s two-month low, as attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz blunted hopes for a truce in the Iran war, Reuters reported. Natural gas climbed to a four-week high on Tuesday as cooler forecasts and record LNG demand met falling output.

Brent: The Strait Is Still Dangerous

Thirty-seven ships were attacked in October, the highest monthly total since the start of the war, according to data from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy cited by Reuters, and recent data showed little sign of fewer attacks in November. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Navy said two tankers caught fire after hitting naval mines on the “unauthorized route” in the strait. “Even in the event a deal is struck, an increase in flows through the waterway would still depend on mine clearance, insurance costs and whether or not shipowners would even be willing to take the risk,” LSEG Oil Research said in a November 10 note.

The diplomatic signals still lean toward de-escalation. President Trump said on Monday the war could end “fairly soon” and called new strikes “quite unlikely,” CNBC reported. Still, an Iranian security official said no talks were taking place between the two sides, Reuters reported, and Brent rose on Wednesday from its two-month low.

WTI: EIA Raises Brent Outlook as US Stocks Build

The EIA raised its Brent price forecasts in its November Short-Term Energy Outlook, to an average of $97 a barrel in 2026 and $86 in 2027, from $96 and $84 a month earlier. It pointed to falling global inventories, continued attacks on oil tankers and fewer available tankers, which have pushed tanker rates sharply higher, and it forecasts Brent will average around $100 a barrel in November and December.

Closer to home, the picture looks softer. US crude stocks rose by 9mn barrels in the week ended November 6, according to American Petroleum Institute data cited by Reuters. In my view, that build is a near-term headwind for WTI. Separately, Russian oil refining capacity has been reduced by about 30% since late October following renewed Ukrainian drone attacks, industry sources said, according to Reuters.

Natural Gas: Output Dips as Exports Run Hot

US natural gas prices climbed to around $3.24/MMBtu, or per million British thermal units, on Tuesday, their highest level in four weeks, Trading Economics reported. Forecasts turned cooler across parts of the central and eastern US through November 20, LNG export flows ran at a record 19.3bn cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, and Lower 48 output averaged 112.1 bcfd so far this month, down from 113.4 bcfd in October.

The EIA’s next storage report is due on Friday, November 13, a day later than usual because of the Veterans Day holiday. Stocks stood 1.4% above the five-year average in the week ended October 30. In my view, the key test is whether the cold is strong enough to start shrinking that surplus.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis: Oil Holds $83.99 Support but Stays Below $91.84

WTI is trading near $86.52 on the 4-hour chart, still below its broken rising channel, the parallel lines that had guided prices higher since July. Buyers stepped in just above $83.99 and prices are steadying, but they remain under $91.84, the pivot point, a level calculated from the previous period’s high, low and close that traders use to judge direction.

Support, where buyers may step in, is $83.99, then $79.45. Resistance, where sellers may return, is $91.84, then $96.93. RSI, a 0 to 100 gauge of buying and selling strength, is near 32 and turning up from near 30, so selling is easing. My bias stays bearish while WTI holds below $91.84. A close below $83.99 would open $79.45.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis: Oil Rebounds Toward $93.28 as Sellers Stay in Control

January Brent futures are trading near $92.43 on the 4-hour chart, still below the broken rising trendline, a line connecting higher lows since August. The bounce from near $89.50 is now testing $93.28, the pivot point, and both moving averages, which track average prices over time, remain above price.

Resistance is $93.28, then $100.70. Support is $87.02, then $82.63. RSI has recovered to about 35 and moved above its signal line, a slower average of RSI, so the selling pressure is fading. I hold a slight bearish lean while Brent stays below $93.28. A close above it would open $100.70, while a drop below $87.02 would point to $82.63.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis: NG Holds $3.25 Pivot as $3.40 Comes Into Focus

Natural gas is trading near $3.29/MMBtu on the 4-hour chart after climbing above $3.25, its pivot point. Prices are also above both moving averages, and the faster one is turning higher.

Resistance is $3.40, then $3.52. Support is $3.25, then $3.09. RSI is near 80, overbought, meaning prices rose very fast, so a pause would not surprise me. The bias stays bullish while gas holds $3.25, and a close above $3.40 would open $3.52.