Yesterday’s market action gave precious and industrial metals buyers several reasons for optimism.
Important resistance levels were challenged, bearish gaps were closed, and previously broken technical boundaries began returning to the bullish side of the equation.
Nevertheless, Tuesday has delivered an uncomfortable reminder… recovering lost ground doesn’t guarantee that buyers will be able to hold it.
Platinum briefly pushed above a formidable combination of resistance levels before sellers forced another retreat. Copper, meanwhile, is threatening to invalidate Monday’s recovery above an important declining channel boundary.
And these aren’t isolated developments.
Gold and silver are also struggling with renewed bearish pressure, while the dollar and palladium face their own unresolved technical battles.
So, have buyers simply encountered another temporary setback? Or are some of the latest bullish recoveries already losing credibility?
Let’s examine two particularly interesting examples.
Platinum (PL.F) – The Bearish Fortress Strikes Back
Sometimes the most revealing part of an attempted breakout is what happens after buyers briefly overcome resistance and platinum is providing an excellent example.
Monday’s rally carried prices toward the formidable resistance combination that we highlighted in yesterday’s article (as a reminder, bearish gaps at 1555-1562 and 1571-1576, the upper boundary of the red declining channel near 1570, and the daily 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1578.64).
Tuesday’s higher opening initially looked promising. Buyers pushed platinum as high as 1587.90, exceeding the entire resistance combination intraday, but the bears weren’t prepared to surrender their fortress.
The subsequent decline carried platinum down, bringing prices back below the channel’s upper boundary and the principal resistance levels, which is a considerable reversal of the earlier bullish achievement.
Now the question is whether sellers can preserve that advantage through the closing bell.
If platinum finishes Tuesday beneath the red channel’s upper boundary, the latest attempt to establish a sustained breakout will have failed. Such a development would increase the likelihood of a corrective move toward the psychological 1500 barrier and the lower boundary of the orange consolidation near 1496.68.
What would invalidate pro bearish scenario? A daily close back above the channel boundary and 1578.64 would substantially improve the bulls’ position, reviving the upside scenario discussed yesterday.
Daily Takeaways: the resistance combination at 1555-1578.64, reinforced by the red channel’s upper boundary, remains critical. A confirmed rejection would increase the risk of a decline toward 1500-1496.68. Reclaiming the entire combination would favor renewed bullish attempts.
Bottom Line: Platinum buyers briefly overcame an impressive resistance cluster but couldn’t maintain their advantage. Today’s closing price will tell us whether this was a temporary setback or another meaningful bearish victory.
Copper (HG.F) – Monday’s Recovery Is Already in Trouble
Copper bulls had plenty of reasons to feel encouraged on Monday.
After defending important weekly Fibonacci support, they closed Friday’s bearish gap at 621.98-627 and managed to reclaim the lower boundary of the black declining channel. Buyers even challenged the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the latest decline from October 28 to November 5.
But Monday’s candle carried an important warning. Its extended upper shadow suggested that sellers were already defending resistance. Tuesday has brought the consequences.
The session opened higher, briefly reaching 639.60, but the bullish enthusiasm quickly faded. Sellers took advantage of the Fibonacci resistance and pushed copper back below the lower boundary of the black declining channel, putting Monday’s bullish gap at 623.75-625 under immediate pressure.
If Tuesday closes back below the black channel’s lower boundary, Monday’s breakout will be invalidated on a daily closing basis and if copper also closes below 623.75, confirming the closure of Monday’s bullish gap, the next important test could arrive almost immediately.
The weekly 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near 622.89 lies just below.
Remember why that level matters?
Buyers defended it on last week’s closing basis, even as the broader technical picture was deteriorating. However, a renewed decline toward this support would revive concerns about the risks to copper’s long-term structure discussed on Friday. In particular, the potential invalidation of the earlier breakout above the upper boundary of the long-term pink rising channel remains a serious warning.
What could spoil the bears’ scenario?
A daily close back above the black channel boundary would preserve Monday’s recovery, while defending the fresh bullish gap would help protect the immediate support structure.
Daily Takeaways: the black declining channel’s lower boundary and Monday’s bullish gap at 623.75-625 is key. Closing the gap below 623.75 would increase pressure on weekly Fibonacci support near 622.89. A confirmed recovery above the channel would undermine the immediate bearish scenario.
Bottom Line: Monday’s bullish recovery is facing a serious challenge. The next closing price will help determine whether buyers can preserve their achievement or whether last week’s larger technical warning is returning to center stage.
What About Gold, Silver, Palladium, and the Dollar?
While platinum and copper are confronting important technical challenges, the other four markets have plenty of unfinished business of their own.
Gold has encountered renewed selling pressure after failing to overcome resistance associated with an earlier bearish engulfing formation. Tuesday’s price action is creating the possibility of another bearish candlestick signal. But will sellers also manage to invalidate the recent bullish breakout?
Silver is offering an equally interesting warning. Monday’s buyers finally confirmed the closure of two bearish gaps, only to face an aggressive reversal the following session. Could this turn into a bull trap, or will buyers recover their lost ground before the close?
Palladium remains caught between important bullish and bearish gaps. Its latest fluctuations haven’t produced a meaningful technical breakthrough, leaving the scenarios discussed in yesterday’s Lab essentially unchanged.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar defended an increasingly important support combination reinforced by a fresh bullish gap. Buyers have responded to renewed selling pressure, but another bearish gap remains overhead, keeping the broader consolidation unresolved.
Four different situations, each with its own technical implications.
In today’s complete Anna’s Trading Lab Premium, we examine these markets in detail, identify the confirmation levels that matter most, and connect the latest developments with the scenarios we’ve been following throughout the week.
Final Thought – What Happens After the Breakout?
It’s tempting to treat a successful breakout as the end of an important technical battle, but sometimes it’s only the beginning.
What happens when the market returns to test the broken level? Do buyers defend their latest gains, or do sellers force another reversal? Those reactions can tell us considerably more than the initial breakthrough itself and that’s why today’s developments deserve attention.
The real test of a recovery isn’t simply whether buyers can reclaim important ground. It’s whether they can hold it when the bears return.
Anna