Bitcoin Forecast: $58,000 Holds Despite the Falling Yen

Key Points:

• Bitcoin (BTC) spent early July doing two opposite things at once: a run to nearly $64,000 on soft US jobs data and fading Fed rate hike odds, then a wobble back toward $63,000 as the Iran ceasefire fell apart. The $57,700-58,200 floor held throughout; my base case keeps it intact through the July 28-29 FOMC.
• Washington is the driver here. The 52-week BTC-USD/JPY correlation reads -0.90, and these two trade like joint bets on the US front end now.
• June's record ETF outflows, $4.06 billion, did the damage. July 2 broke the streak, first inflow in ten sessions.
• The risk that matters is a hot mid July CPI, which re-arms the hike case and puts Citi's $53,000 bear zone in play. A BoJ hike on July 31 would, oddly enough, help the price.