Crude Oil Price Forecast: Brent Pullback Masks Growing Diesel Supply Risk

Key Points:

• Brent’s sharp pullback reflects record crude floating storage, but refined-product supply is much tighter, with diesel cracks near $81 per barrel versus a five-year norm around $25.
• U.S. SPR stocks have fallen to 311.4 million barrels, while declining drawdown capacity limits the reserve’s ability to cushion another major supply shock.
• Hormuz product exports have dropped from about 4.5 million barrels per day to 500,000, while Russian refinery outages and possible Chinese export curbs increase winter diesel risk.