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Gold Price Analysis: Can Gold Push to $4,275 Before September Fed Meeting?

Gold Price Analysis: Can Gold Push to $4,275 Before September Fed Meeting?

By: 
Navnoor Bawa
Published: Aug 12, 2026, 15:06 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • August 4. Managed-money gross shorts in COMEX gold hit 9,043 contracts, 2.4% of open interest. Thinnest since 28 April 2020. By the Friday it was being passed round as a buy signal.
  • I ran it against 1,052 weekly reports and got +2.96% over thirteen weeks. Then I checked when those weeks actually happened, rebuilt the control out of the same four years, and ran it again. +2.74%. Nothing in it either way.
  • The three precedents all landed with the two-year yield falling, by 123, 136 and 22 basis points. On 4 August it was up 27, five days after three FOMC members voted to hike.
  • My call: the fix at $4,165 to $4,275 by the 15-16 September FOMC, inside a range of $4,030 to $4,510. A weekly fix outside it settles this either way.
In this article:

Gold fixed at $4,383.35 on Tuesday 11 August, up 9.71% from 17 July and still 18.90% below the record $5,405.00 of 29 January (LBMA precious metal prices). What’s being passed round to explain that recovery is a six-year low in short positioning. I went to find out what it’s been worth historically, expecting to write the bullish piece. It is worth nothing, and that is why this is a neutral call instead of a bullish one.