Crude oil prices fell 3% as an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire erased risk premium, boosting hopes for an Iran deal despite tight global supplies.
July WTI crude oil dropped more than 3% on Thursday after Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire and the market pulled back from $97.00 to test the 50-day moving average at $91.77. The risk premium that pushed crude oil toward $100 is getting stripped out. But the Energy Information Administration just reported an 8 million barrel crude draw, Russia admitted production is falling, and the Strait of Hormuz is still not open. The ceasefire is holding by a thread and the 50-day MA is holding by the same one. Here is what the charts and the headlines are telling me.