Oil Price News: Why Brent Isn’t Coming Back Down
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Key Points:
- Brent Crude closed the week at $105.32, up 3.47%, as structural damage to global energy supply — blown spare capacity, Qatar LNG offline for 3–5 years, and a drained floating glut — locks in a higher price floor.
- The US-Iran standoff has escalated beyond diplomacy: 2,500 additional marines deployed, a 15-point ceasefire proposal rejected, and the forward curve is still not pricing the full extension of hostilities.
- WTI COT data shows "Other Reportable" puked 15,538 shorts (-29% WoW), confirming the market is heavily positioned long with no meaningful short conviction emerging yet.
The US administration has lost control of the narrative. In the parlance of poker, Trump tried to pressure the pot with a 24hr, then 5 day window or else he would ‘destroy’ Iran’s entire power grid. Iran called the raise. Now the US are locked into representing their hand with 2,500 additional marines now moved into the theatre, with an assault on Khrag Island whispered as the first deployment ground. There are currently over 50,000 US troops in The Middle East.