XRP (XRP) is currently the worst-performing token in the top 5 with a 16% decline in the past 7 days and a 23% loss in the past month, as big setbacks on the legislative front in the U.S. continue to weigh on its valuation.
The Democrats’ victory during the mid-term elections in the country brought back fears of renewed hostilities or at least a stalemate in the progress that the current administration has made when it comes to crypto regulations.
It was the Democrats who sued Ripple over the sale of unregistered securities, along with multiple other projects. Their actions managed to tank the price of the asset for years.
Now that this party has a majority both in the House and the Senate, the Trump administration will face significant obstacles to push forward its agenda. The goal of making the U.S. the “crypto capital of America” seems quite hard to attain after this tectonic shift in the country’s political landscape.
XRP ETFs Book Their Strongest Daily Net Outflow in 8 Months
All of this is bad news for XRP, and the crypto market is reacting accordingly. Net inflows to exchange-traded funds (ETFs) linked to the token booked their largest single-day outflow since March 2026, with $10 million flowing out of these vehicles yesterday.
For four days, Wall Street did not touch these ETFs at all, while their first action after that period of null activity was a strong withdrawal.
November net inflows have turned negative as a result. If the metric closes the month in red territory, that would mark the third consecutive period of steady declines.
Although all other top altcoins are feeling the sting of a strong shift in market sentiment, XRP has been the most impacted.
Hence, we envision that the price could drop to $1 or lower, potentially erasing a significant portion of the gains that the token saw following President Trump’s victory during the November 2024 election.
Moreover, analysts are now weighing the possibility of a 50 basis points rate hike in the next FOMC meeting, as inflation in October surpassed analysts’ estimates.
Earlier today, the annualized variation of the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 0.3% or 10 basis points higher than the market’s consensus estimate for the period.
As a result, odds of a 50bps rate hike are now at 12%, according to data from FedWatch.
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See all Ripple forecastsXRP Risks Major Drop to Pre-Trump Levels If It Loses this Key Support
Turning to the daily chart, we can see that XRP has already hit the mid-point of its last standing fair value gap (FVG) after a six-day decline.
This is the last line of defense for the token to remain in bull market territory. If fully filled, we will probably see the token dipping back to its cycle low of $0.98 or lower, amid the latest legislative setbacks and a deterioration of the macro backdrop.
On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) just hit oversold territory. The last time this happened, the price bounced off to a previous higher low before resuming its downtrend.
Hence, we may expect a technical rebound in the next few days, but that may not be sufficient to drive a recovery unless we see strong evidence of a trend reversal in the 4-hour time frame.
Bear in mind that XRP traded at less than $0.50 before Trump was elected. The market rallied as it believed that the President would make things better for the crypto industry. Now that Democrats hold the majority in Congress, this narrative is no longer valid.
Hence, the downside risk for XRP seems huge at this point.